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MURAGE

An AI Chief of Staff and a team that does the work. Free and open source, from Ferrox Labs.

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Productivity skills

Decision Making Framework

Synthesizes First Principles thinking, Inversion, Second-Order Thinking, Bayesian Updating, and Pre-mortem analysis into The Decision Architecture - a systematic framework for making better decisions under uncertainty.

Download Murage

Free and open source. macOS, Windows and Ubuntu.

Try it

Add the skill to a bot, then ask your Chief of Staff:

“Use the Decision Making Framework skill on this: [describe the job, or paste your notes].”

MODERATE DECISION (medium stakes, somewhat reversible): Use: First Principles + Second-Order Thinking Time: 1-2 hours Examples: Job offers, major purchases, project approaches, hiring.

What it covers

  • The Decision Architecture
  • Source Methodology Comparison
  • Tool 1: First Principles Thinking
  • Tool 2: Inversion
  • Tool 3: Second-Order Thinking
  • Tool 4: Bayesian Updating
  • Tool 5: Pre-mortem Analysis
  • Build Your Personal System

Skill Guard: clean

Scanned and clear. A bot can use it as soon as you add it.

Subject
Productivity
Level
intermediate
License
Apache-2.0
time-managementframeworksjournalingchecklisttemplateguidetestinganalysis

How to use it.

  1. 1

    Download Murage

    Free for Mac, Windows and Ubuntu.

  2. 2

    Add the skill

    Open Settings → Skills and switch on Decision Making Framework for any bot. Or ask your Chief of Staff to pick skills for a job.

  3. 3

    Give it a job

    The bot reads the skill when the job calls for it, and works the way it lays out.

Teams that use this skill.

  • Lesson Scripting CrewTurn the learning goal into a clear, natural-speaking script paced to the target lesson length.
  • Daily BriefingSort your concerns through operational, financial, sales, and risk perspectives to identify today's most important next step.
  • War RoomExamine operational, financial, growth, risk, and customer perspectives, then get a go, no-go, or conditional recommendation.
  • Student Support DeskGroup requests, draft helpful responses and reusable replies, and prepare support documentation and escalation priorities.

Each of these library teams gives its bots this skill. Import one free and look inside first.

Put this skill to work.

  • Morning briefOne page at 7am. Everything else can wait.
  • Meeting prepWalk into every meeting already briefed.
  • Skill GuardEvery skill is scanned before a bot can use it.

Questions.

What is the Decision Making Framework skill?+

Synthesizes First Principles thinking, Inversion, Second-Order Thinking, Bayesian Updating, and Pre-mortem analysis into The Decision Architecture - a systematic framework for making better decisions under uncertainty.

How much does it cost?+

Nothing. It ships with Murage, which is free and open source. Your bots run on the AI plan you already have.

Can I change it?+

Yes. Open it in Settings → Skills to read, edit or duplicate it. Skill Guard scans it again after every edit.

More productivity skills.

  • Bayesian ReasonerPractical Bayesian thinking covering Bayesian updating, base rates, prior probabilities, likelihood ratios and prediction calibration.
  • Conflict Resolution Framework BuilderSynthesizes Thomas-Kilmann conflict modes, Nonviolent Communication (NVC) and Crucial Conversations concepts.
  • Creative Problem SolverStructured creativity methodologies including TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving), lateral thinking (Edward de Bono) and design thinking (5 stages).
  • Critical ThinkerComprehensive critical thinking toolkit covering 30+ logical fallacies with examples, evidence evaluation (sources, methodology and claims).
  • Cynefin NavigatorPractical guide to the Cynefin complexity framework covering domain identification, appropriate responses for each context and boundary management.
  • Debt Elimination StrategistSynthesizes Debt Snowball, Debt Avalanche, Debt Consolidation, and Balance Transfer strategies into The Debt Freedom Roadmap - a systematic approach to eliminating debt based on your financial profile and psychology.

All productivity skills

Give your first job to Murage.

Download the free app, connect the AI you already pay for, and tell your Chief of Staff what needs doing. Plan on about ten minutes from install to a working team.

Free · Download Murage

No account needed · Runs on the AI plan you already pay for