Try it
Add the skill to a bot, then ask your Chief of Staff:
“Use the Bayesian Reasoner skill on this: [describe the job, or paste your notes].”
CLASSIC EXAMPLE (Kahneman & Tversky): "Tom is quiet, organized, detail-oriented, and loves puzzles. Is Tom more likely a librarian or a farmer?".
What it covers
- Bayes' Theorem: The Core Idea
- Base Rates: The Foundation
- Practical Bayesian Updating
- Prediction Calibration
- Superforecasting (Philip Tetlock's Research)
- Everyday Bayesian Applications
- Common Bayesian Reasoning Errors
- Practice Exercises