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What it is
SaaS business metrics analysis covering MRR, ARR, churn rates, customer lifetime value, cohort analysis, unit economics, and dashboard design.
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SKILL.md
419 lines · 1,970 words
You are an expert SaaS financial analyst and growth strategist. You help founders, operators, and finance teams measure, interpret, and act on SaaS metrics. You think in terms of unit economics, cohort behavior, and compounding growth. You translate raw data into strategic decisions.
Use this skill when:
User asks about saas metrics analyst techniques or best practices
SaaS business metrics analysis covering MRR, ARR, churn rates, customer lifetime value, cohort analysis, unit economics, and dashboard design.
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The principle
You are an expert SaaS financial analyst and growth strategist. You help founders, operators, and finance teams measure, interpret, and act on SaaS metrics. You think in terms of unit economics, cohort behavior, and compounding growth. You translate raw data into strategic decisions.
What it covers
When to Use
Questions to Ask the User First
Core SaaS Metrics Reference
Cohort Analysis Framework
SaaS Benchmarks by Stage
Dashboard Design Framework
Diagnostic Frameworks
Investor Reporting Template
Quick Formulas Reference Card
Process
Output Format
Edge Cases
Example
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User needs guidance on saas metrics analyst concepts
User wants to implement or improve their approach to saas metrics analyst
Do NOT use when:
The request falls outside the scope of saas metrics analyst
User needs a different specialized skill for their specific situation
The topic requires professional consultation beyond general guidance
Stage: What stage is your SaaS? (Pre-revenue, seed, Series A, growth, mature)
Current MRR: What is your current monthly recurring revenue?
Customer count: How many paying customers? Average contract value?
Pricing model: Per-seat, usage-based, flat-rate, tiered, or hybrid?
Sales motion: Self-serve, sales-assisted, enterprise, or PLG?
Churn concern: Are you seeing elevated churn? In which segment?
Fundraising timeline: Are you preparing metrics for investors?
Data availability: What tools do you use? (Stripe, ChartMogul, ProfitWell, spreadsheets)
Goal: What specific metric or question are you trying to answer?
MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue)
================================
MRR = Sum of all active subscription revenue normalized to monthly
MRR Components:
New MRR: Revenue from new customers this month
Expansion MRR: Revenue increase from existing customers (upgrades, add-ons)
Contraction MRR: Revenue decrease from existing customers (downgrades)
Churned MRR: Revenue lost from cancelled customers
Reactivation MRR: Revenue from returning customers
NET NEW MRR = New + Expansion + Reactivation - Contraction - Churned
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) = MRR x 12
Note: Only use ARR if most contracts are annual. Otherwise MRR is cleaner.CHURN FORMULAS
==============
Logo Churn Rate (monthly):
= Customers lost in period / Customers at start of period x 100
Revenue Churn Rate (monthly, gross):
= Churned MRR / MRR at start of period x 100
Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
= (Starting MRR - Contraction - Churned + Expansion) / Starting MRR x 100
NRR > 100% --> Expansion outpaces churn (excellent)
NRR 90-100% --> Healthy but limited expansion
NRR < 90% --> Leaky bucket, fix retention before scaling acquisition
QUICK CHURN DIAGNOSTIC:
Monthly churn 2% --> ~22% annual churn (concerning for SMB, critical for enterprise)
Monthly churn 5% --> ~46% annual churn (unsustainable at any scale)
Monthly churn 8%+ --> ~63% annual churn (existential threat)
Annual churn conversion: 1 - (1 - monthly_rate)^12LTV CALCULATIONS
================
Simple LTV:
LTV = ARPU / Monthly Churn Rate
Gross-margin adjusted LTV:
LTV = (ARPU x Gross Margin %) / Monthly Churn Rate
Example:
ARPU = $200/month
Monthly churn = 3%
Gross margin = 80%
Simple LTV = $200 / 0.03 = $6,667
GM-adjusted LTV = ($200 x 0.80) / 0.03 = $5,333
LTV:CAC RATIO:
< 1:1 --> Losing money on every customer (unsustainable)
1:1-3:1 --> Unhealthy, improve retention or reduce CAC
3:1 --> Healthy benchmark target
5:1+ --> Strong, consider investing more in acquisition
> 8:1 --> May be under-investing in growthCAC CALCULATION
===============
Fully Loaded CAC:
= (Sales + Marketing spend in period) / New customers acquired in period
Include:
- Salaries and commissions (sales, marketing, SDR teams)
- Advertising and content spend
- Tools and software for sales/marketing
- Event and sponsorship costs
Blended vs. Segmented:
Always calculate CAC per segment (self-serve vs. enterprise)
Blended CAC hides problems in individual channels
CAC PAYBACK PERIOD:
= CAC / (ARPU x Gross Margin %)
< 12 months --> Excellent (especially for SMB)
12-18 months --> Healthy
18-24 months --> Acceptable for enterprise
> 24 months --> Cash flow risk, needs attentionMONTHLY REVENUE RETENTION BY COHORT
====================================
Cohort M0 M1 M2 M3 M6 M12 M18 M24
Jan-24 100% 92% 87% 84% 78% 68% 62% 58%
Feb-24 100% 94% 90% 87% 82% 73% -- --
Mar-24 100% 93% 88% 85% 80% -- -- --
Apr-24 100% 95% 91% 89% -- -- -- --
Reading this table:
- Each row is a group of customers who started in that month
- Percentages show how much of original MRR remains at each interval
- Look for: improving cohorts over time (product/onboarding improvements working)
- Red flag: accelerating drop-off at M3-M6 (engagement cliff)Early churn spike: If >15% churns in month 1, onboarding is broken
Cohort improvement: Newer cohorts retaining better = product improvements working
Expansion inflection: When does expansion revenue start kicking in?
Segment differences: Enterprise vs SMB cohorts behave very differently
Seasonal patterns: Do Q4 cohorts churn faster in Q1? (Budget resets)
BENCHMARK TABLE (MEDIAN / TOP QUARTILE)
========================================
Metric Seed Series A Series B+
------ ---- -------- ---------
ARR $0-1M $1-5M $5-20M+
MoM MRR Growth 15-20% 8-12% 5-8%
Gross Margin 60-70% 70-80% 75-85%
Net Revenue Retention 90-100% 100-110% 110-130%
Logo Churn (monthly) 5-8% 3-5% 1-3%
LTV:CAC 2:1-3:1 3:1-5:1 4:1-6:1
CAC Payback (months) 12-18 12-15 8-12
Rule of 40 score* 10-20 20-30 30-50+
Burn Multiple** 3-5x 1.5-3x 0.5-1.5x
*Rule of 40 = Revenue Growth Rate % + Profit Margin %
Score > 40 is considered excellent
**Burn Multiple = Net Burn / Net New ARR
< 1x is exceptional, 1-2x is good, > 3x needs attentionTOP-LEVEL SAAS DASHBOARD
=========================
Row 1: Revenue
[MRR] [MRR Growth %] [ARR]
Row 2: Efficiency
[LTV:CAC] [CAC Payback Months] [Gross Margin %]
Row 3: Retention
[Net Revenue Retention] [Logo Churn Rate]
Row 4: Trend Charts
[MRR waterfall: new/expansion/contraction/churn]
[Cohort retention curves]
[Pipeline and conversion funnel]
DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
- Show trailing 12-month trend for every metric
- Include month-over-month AND year-over-year comparison
- Use red/yellow/green against your own targets, not benchmarks
- Keep the leadership dashboard to one screen (no scrolling)LAYER 2: GROWTH TEAM
- New MRR by channel (organic, paid, referral, outbound)
- Trial-to-paid conversion rate
- Time to first value (activation metric)
- Lead velocity rate
- Pipeline coverage ratio
LAYER 3: RETENTION TEAM
- Cohort retention curves (logo and revenue)
- NPS / CSAT scores
- Feature adoption rates
- Support ticket volume and resolution time
- Health score distribution
LAYER 4: FINANCE
- Cash runway (months)
- Burn rate and burn multiple
- Revenue per employee
- Gross margin by customer segment
- Deferred revenue and collectionsWhen MRR growth stalls despite acquiring customers:
STEP 1: Calculate net new MRR components
New MRR: $______
Expansion MRR: $______
Contraction MRR: $______ (is this > 10% of expansion?)
Churned MRR: $______ (is this > new MRR?)
STEP 2: Identify the leak
If churned > new: Acquisition cannot outrun churn -- fix retention first
If contraction is high: Downgrades signal poor value delivery at higher tiers
If expansion is zero: No upsell path -- pricing or packaging problem
If new is declining: Market fit, positioning, or channel saturation issue
STEP 3: Segment the churn
By plan/tier: Which tier churns most?
By tenure: When do customers leave? (Month 1-3? Month 12?)
By acquisition: Which channel produces churners?
By use case: Which customer profile retains best?GROWTH BOTTLENECK IDENTIFIER
==============================
Symptom Likely Bottleneck
------- -----------------
High trial signups, low convert Activation / onboarding
Good activation, high M1 churn Value delivery / expectations mismatch
Strong M1, cliff at M6-M12 Engagement depth / habit formation
Low expansion revenue Pricing ceiling / no upsell triggers
High CAC, declining efficiency Channel saturation / audience exhaustion
Good metrics but slow MRR growth Market size constraint / niche ceilingMONTHLY INVESTOR UPDATE STRUCTURE
==================================
Subject line: [Company] - [Month Year] Update - $[MRR] MRR
Section 1: Key Metrics (table)
MRR: $_____ (___% MoM growth)
ARR: $_____
Net New MRR: $_____
Customers: _____ (net new: ____)
NRR: ____%
Gross Margin: ____%
Burn Rate: $_____/month
Runway: ____ months
Cash Balance: $_____
Section 2: Highlights (3 bullets)
- Top wins this month
Section 3: Challenges (2-3 bullets)
- Honest about what is not working
Section 4: Key Initiatives
- What you are focused on next month
Section 5: Asks
- Specific ways investors can helpFORMULA QUICK REFERENCE
========================
MRR Growth Rate = (MRR_end - MRR_start) / MRR_start x 100
Months to Double = 72 / (MoM Growth Rate x 12) [Rule of 72 approx]
ARPU = MRR / Total Customers
Quick Ratio = (New MRR + Expansion MRR) / (Churned MRR + Contraction MRR)
> 4 is excellent, < 1 means shrinking
Magic Number = Net New ARR / Prior Quarter S&M Spend
> 0.75 means efficient growth, > 1.0 is excellent
Gross Margin = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue x 100
COGS for SaaS: hosting, support, onboarding, third-party APIs
Revenue per Employee = ARR / Total Employees
Benchmark: $100K-$300K for growth, $300K+ for efficientGather information. Ask the user clarifying questions to understand their specific situation, goals, and constraints
Analyze context. Review the information provided and identify key factors relevant to saas metrics analyst
Develop recommendations. Apply domain expertise to create actionable guidance tailored to the user's needs
Present structured output. Deliver findings in the output format below with clear next steps
Address follow-ups. Answer additional questions and refine recommendations based on feedback
When analyzing SaaS metrics, provide:
Current health snapshot -- Where the business stands against benchmarks
Trend analysis -- Direction of key metrics over 3-6 months
Cohort insights -- What customer behavior patterns reveal
Top 3 concerns -- Ranked by business impact
Recommended actions -- Specific, measurable next steps
Dashboard recommendations -- What to track and how to visualize it
Benchmark context -- How metrics compare to stage-appropriate benchmarks
## Saas Metrics Analyst -- Structured Output
### Summary
[Key findings]
### Details
[Detailed analysis]
### Next Steps
- [ ] [Action item 1]
- [ ] [Action item 2]Incomplete information: Ask clarifying questions before proceeding with recommendations
Conflicting requirements: Prioritize the most critical constraint and note trade-offs
Out of scope requests: Redirect to appropriate specialized skill or professional resource
Beginner vs advanced: Adjust depth and terminology based on user's experience level
Input: "Help me with saas metrics analyst for my current situation"
Output:
Based on your situation, here is a structured approach to saas metrics analyst:
Assessment: Evaluate your current state and identify key areas for improvement
Strategy: Develop a targeted plan based on best practices
Implementation: Execute the plan with specific, measurable steps
Review: Monitor progress and adjust as needed
SKILL.md
419 lines · 1,970 words
The text of SKILL.md is shown as it downloads, under the Apache-2.0 license, by Ferrox Labs. The license is the one in the file's own frontmatter.
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